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03/15/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The hoped for meeting next month at Oaklawn Park between 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and champion mare Zenyatta has been put on hold.
Rachel Alexandra's majority owner Jess Jackson announced on Sunday that his four-year-old filly will not take on her older rival in the Apple Blossom Invitational on Friday, April 9. Both females began their 2010 season on Saturday with different results.
Racing in the New Orleans Ladies at the Fair Grounds, Rachel finished second to Zardana, a stablemate of Zenyatta. Zardana, trained by John Shirreffs, got the best of the 1-20 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile race. Rachel came up three- quarters of a length short of getting the win.
"Yesterday's race while a disappointment," Jackson said on Sunday, "helped us define Rachel Alexandra's racing condition. While she is healthy, just as I had anticipated, she is not in top form. Therefore, I decided today she will not be going to the Oaklawn Invitational on April 9. Steve and I discussed this fully and we now regret we tried to accelerate her training in order meet the Apple Blossom schedule. We have a whole season before us to help define her greatness. She will tell us when her next race will be.
"We tried and we really wanted to go (to the Apple Blossom). It's unfortunate but the timing just wasn't right. For the health of the horse. It's obvious she's not in top shape. The race yesterday was to define how far along she was. I repeatedly told people she was only 80 or 85 percent of what I thought was up to her top condition last year. That race proved it."
Zenyatta, on the other hand, exhibited her now classic style of racing. Sitting last in the nine horse field, Zenyatta and jockey Mike Smith did not begin to move past other horses until the far turn.
The two-time champion mare had to maneuver around horses down the stretch, but eventually prevailed over Dance to My Tune by 1 1/4-lengths. Unlike Rachel who was the overwhelming 1-20 favorite, Zenyatta was the 3-10 favorite in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Margarita Invitational.
"Everybody really loves her," owner Jerry Moss said about Zenyatta. "Everybody's so pleased to have her back and to root for her, and when she wins, she makes everybody happy. It's sort of like something going on inside each and every one of us. She's perfect. She's the idol of perfection we all strive for. That's about as profound as I get.
"We're disappointed that we're not going to be able to face each other in the Apple Blossom. Hopefully, we can meet down the line. We respect both Steve (Asmussen) and Mr. Jackson as horsemen and they're going to do what's right for their horse. That's all anybody could ask for. We'll go on to the Apple Blossom as planned."
The Apple Blossom will now revert to its original $500,000 purse due to the absence of Rachel Alexandra. Oaklawn Park did everything it could to facilitate a meeting between the two champions. The race was originally scheduled for April 3, but was pushed back six days to accommodate both parties.
The question now is whether Rachel is going race again this year? It appeared on Saturday that she was capable of winning, but jockey Calvin Borel felt the filly simply needed the race.
"We had talked about her being 75 or 85 percent fit," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "The filly got tired but she cooled out fine and came back well from it; it's just a case if we can move forward in a positive direction fitness-wise, as well as with everything else. Her physical condition and her state of mind are what we need to concern ourselves with and we'll address that moving forward."
As has always been the case Jess Jackson is in no hurry to have Rachel race before she shows she is ready.
"It's up to her," Jackson commented. "She has to show us that she's back up to her '09 form. We had progressively accelerated her conditioning and it didn't work, so we're going to gear back, let her develop at her own pace. I can't give you a prediction as to when, but it might take a couple of months."
While the racing world is anxious to have Rachel and Zenyatta meet, we have to commend Mr. Jackson and his crew for their diligence in keeping the filly's health primary.
<< Lakers shoot for another season sweep of Warriors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pacific Division foes square off for the last time this
season on Monday when the defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers head up
the California coast to take on the Golden State Warriors.
The Lakers - Warriors rivalry h
<< Fading Hornets resume road trip vs. Clippers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fading New Orleans Hornets resume a five-game road trip
at Staples Center tonight hoping for their 13th straight win over the Los
Angeles Clippers.
The Hornets dropped the opener of their trek in Phoenix last night whe
<< Jazz return home to face hapless Wizards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz hope a return to Salt Lake City against a
hapless Washington team will get them back on the winning track as the
postseason approaches.
The short-handed Jazz dropped the final two games of a four-game road tr
<< Celtics and Pistons clash in Beantown
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Celtics hope to bounce back from a tough loss in
Cleveland on Sunday when they welcome Eastern Conference also-ran Detroit to
Beantown.
In a possible playoff preview the C's came up short against the Cavs when
Roy Williams re-signs with Cincinnati >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Bengals made it official on
Monday and re-signed safety Roy Williams.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed for Williams, who had become an
unrestricted free agent after an injury-s
Charlotte fires men's hoops coach >>
Charlotte, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Charlotte has fired men's basketball coach
Bobby Lutz after a 12-year stint.
Charlotte collapsed at the end of the season, losing seven of its last eight
games, including a 59-56 setback against Massachu
Huddlestone inks new Spurs deal >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tom Huddlestone has put pen to paper on a
new long-term contract with Tottenham.
The 23-year-old midfielder has agreed to terms on a new deal which will keep
him at White Hart Lane until the summer of 2
Brown gets the ax at Hull City >>
Hull, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phil Brown has been relieved of his
managerial duties with immediate effect.
The Tigers have confirmed that Brown's three-and-a-half year reign has been
ended and that assistants Brian Horton
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII is now set, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers will meet each other on February 1st in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium to battle it out for the coveted Lombardi Trophy. The game kicks off at 6:00pm ET on NBC with announcers Al Michaels and John Madden covering the on-field action. Super Bowl XLIII betting odds at online bookmaker MySportsbook.com have the Steelers listed as an early -6.5 against the spread favorite.Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds
Pittsburgh earned their passage to the big game by beating their division rival, the Baltimore Ravens, 23-14 in yesterday's AFC Championship Game. The Steelers jumped on Baltimore early, building a 13-0 first half lead, and never let up on their way to a fairly easy win. Although the Ravens did close to within two points in the fourth quarter, it never appeared as if they had enough offense to pull off the upset.
The Steelers dominating defense held Baltimore to a total of 198 yards while allowing them to convert just three third downs in 13 attempts. Pittsburgh also forced quarterback Joe Flacco into three interceptions, one of which safety Troy Polamalu returned fourty yards for a touchdown.
The Cardinals, by far the playoff team with the longest odds to reach Super Bowl XLIII, did so yesterday with a 32-25 upset of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. Arizona charged out of the gates and built a 24-6 halftime lead that had the Eagles venerable defense reeling. Quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did most of the damage, connecting on three first half touchdowns.
Arizona, however, could not sustain their momentum and the Eagles took a 25-24 with 10:45 left to play in the fourth. The Cardinals, with the franchise's first Super Bowl appearance hanging in the balance, mounted a fourteen play, 72 yard touchdown drive that consumed 7:52 off the clock. Warner hit running back Tim Hightower on a short screen for the go-ahead, game clinching score that will forever live in Cardinal infamy.
MySportsbook.com's Super Bowl XLIII Betting Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-110), Over 46.5 (-110), -260 (Money line)
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 (-110), Under 46.5 (-110), +220 (Money line)
Matt Foust won both of his conference championship plays yesterday and he is ready to serve up plenty of Super Bowl action. Each individual play costs $15.00, however, MySportsbook.com recommends purchasing Matt's NFL Playoff Package which includes all of Matt's Super Bowl props and picks from just $45.00.
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